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DORIAN LPG LTD. (LPG)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY2026 was soft on headline results due to heavy drydocking and lower spot rates: revenue $84.21M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.24, adjusted EPS $0.27, adjusted EBITDA $38.58M; TCE fell to $39,726/day and available days declined to 2,086 .
  • Results missed S&P Global Wall Street consensus: revenue -2.7%, EPS -61.0%, adjusted EBITDA -20.0%; management cited drydock-related availability and market volatility as key drivers . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Capital return remained a catalyst: irregular $0.60 dividend (~$25.6M) was declared, signaling confidence in forward bookings and market backdrop .
  • Forward indicators improved: ~70% of Q2 fixable days reportedly booked at TCE >$67,000/day; cash liquidity strong ($278M) with net debt-to-cap ~16.8% and undrawn $50M revolver, supporting balanced distributions and fleet investment .
  • Management tone constructive, expecting stronger sequential performance as drydocking wanes and trade flows stabilize, with limited fleet additions and expanding U.S. export capacity underpinning VLGC rates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Capital returns sustained: Board declared an irregular $0.60 dividend (~$25.6M), continuing disciplined shareholder distributions and confidence in near-term market strength .
  • Liquidity and leverage solid: cash $278M, undrawn $50M revolver, net debt-to-total cap ~16.8%, all-in debt cost ~5.1%, positioning for fleet renewal and balanced capital allocation .
  • Forward bookings strong: ~70% of fixable Q2 pool days booked at TCE >$67,000/day, indicating a materially firmer market vs Q1 .

What Went Wrong

  • Operational availability: heavy drydocking reduced available days (2,086 vs 2,260 YoY) and lifted non-capitalized drydock expenses (~$2.6M; ~$0.06/share), pressuring revenue and margins .
  • Market rates: TCE declined to $39,726/day from $50,243/day YoY on lower spot rates (Baltic Ras Tanura–Chiba avg $63.50/mt vs $72.67/mt YoY), driving revenue down 26.4% YoY .
  • Elevated G&A: cash bonuses timing drove G&A up 62.2% YoY to $16.9M, further compressing profitability in a lower-rate quarter .

Financial Results

Core P&L and KPIs (prior two quarters vs current)

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
Revenue ($USD Millions)$80.67 $75.89 $84.21
Net Income ($USD Millions)$21.36 $8.09 $10.08
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.50 $0.19 $0.24
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.43 $0.25 $0.27
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$45.24 $36.62 $38.58
TCE ($/available day)$36,071 $35,324 $39,726
Available Days (count)2,210 2,099 2,086

Margins

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026
EBIT Margin %29.06%*19.83%*18.60%*
Net Income Margin %26.55%*10.92%*12.03%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q1 FY2026 vs Prior Year (YoY)

MetricQ1 2025 (Jun 30, 2024)Q1 2026 (Jun 30, 2025)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$114.35 $84.21
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.25 $0.24
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.26 $0.27
TCE ($/available day)$50,243 $39,726
Available Days (count)2,260 2,086

Q1 FY2026 vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$86.53*$84.21 -2.7%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.61*$0.24 -61.0%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$48.24*$38.58 -20.0%

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

  • Dorian operates a VLGC fleet primarily within the Helios Pool; no separate revenue segments disclosed in the press materials. Pool adjustment effects are disclosed within TCE reconciliations .

Additional KPIs and Operational Notes

  • Daily vessel OpEx reported $11,466; excluding non-capitalized drydock, CFO cites $10,108/day (down meaningfully q/q) .
  • Time chartered-in days: 370 in Q1 FY2026 .
  • Non-capitalized drydock expenses totaled $2.6M ($0.06/share) in Q1 FY2026 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Irregular Dividend ($/share)Payable Aug 27, 2025N/A$0.60 (~$25.6M total) Introduced/Declared
Forward Bookings TCE (Pool)Q2 FY2026N/A~70% fixable days at TCE >$67,000/day Introduced
Time Chartered-in ExpenseQ2 FY2026N/A~$14–$15M Introduced
Non-cash Compensation ExpenseQ2 FY2026N/A+~$3M vs Q1 FY2026 Increased
Drydock Cash CostsQ2 FY2026N/A~$6.5–$7.0M; ~1/3 expensed Introduced
Cash Cost per Day (ex capex)FY2026 outlookN/A~$26,000/day Introduced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY2025)Previous Mentions (Q4 FY2025)Current Period (Q1 FY2026)Trend
Tariffs/MacroPDH overcapacity; weaker China imports; steady Baltic ~$56/mt; terminal FM impacts Tariff announcements; U.S. exports volatility; inventory drawdowns; VLGC fundamentals sensitive to US-China policy Tariff shock in April; quick freight recovery; fewer Red Sea transits; volatility but firming markets Improving market tone despite volatility
VLGC Spot Rates/TCETCE $36,071/day; Baltic $56/mt TCE $35,324/day; Baltic $51.7/mt (Q1’25) TCE $39,726/day in Q1; forward TCE >$67k/day booked ~70% for Q2 Sequentially stronger
Supply Chain/Terminal CapacityU.S. terminal constraints easing; Houston-Chiba route higher Difficult ARB; terminal fees squeezed; rate retreat in Feb then improvement in Mar Lower terminaling fees YoY; expanded capacity aids ARB capture Positive
Capital Allocation$0.70 dividend; payout above net income on constructive view $0.50 dividend; continued returns $0.60 dividend (~$25.6M); continued returns Maintained
Environmental/Tech——Scrubber savings $0.96M; LPG fuel differential vs LSFO $71/mt; ammonia capability upgrades Advancing
Fleet/DrydockingDrydock/Opex up; availability impacts Heavy drydock schedule; Opex per day up 10 of 12 drydockings completed; ~195 unavailable days; remaining drydock costs guided Winding down

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our results for the reporting quarter were impacted by a heavy drydocking schedule as well as the market… Our bookings for the current quarter are at strong rates supporting our positive outlook… confident in the resilience and the fundamentals of the LPG trade.” .
  • CFO: “Q1 results were sequentially stronger than the March 31 quarter… ~70% of the pool’s fixable days… at a TCE in excess of $67,000/day… $0.60 dividend reflects a constructive market view… cash $278M; net debt-to-cap ~16.8%” .
  • VP Chartering: Tariff shock halved Baltic indices briefly; recovery within five working days; Middle East tensions lengthened ton-miles; U.S. exports steady at 4.6–4.8 MMT/month .
  • Head of Energy Transition: Scrubber savings $961,000 in Q1; five dual-fuel LPG vessels; ammonia carriage capability to expand to five VLGCs; exceeding IMO EEXI/CII .

Q&A Highlights

  • Market strength drivers: U.S. NGL production and export growth; rapid adaptation to tariff shocks; ton-mile lengthening due to Middle East transit restrictions .
  • ARB capture: Terminal fees down YoY; expanded terminal capacity allows freight to capture larger share of ARB .
  • Ethane carriers overhang risk: If ethane trade stopped, potential VLGC market entry; management sees low likelihood and notes technical constraints to switching back to ethane .
  • Tone: Constructive, with confidence in fundamentals and improved sequential performance as operational headwinds abate .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 FY2026 misses vs consensus: revenue ($84.21M) vs $86.53M (-2.7%); GAAP diluted EPS ($0.24) vs $0.61 (-61.0%); adjusted EBITDA ($38.58M) vs $48.24M (-20.0%). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Drivers of the miss: lower TCE from weaker spot rates, fewer available days due to heavy drydocking, and elevated G&A from cash bonuses timing .
  • Forward implication: Management’s booked TCE >$67k/day for ~70% of Q2 fixable days and reduced drydock impact suggest potential for upward revisions for next quarter’s revenue/EBITDA; however, street updates will depend on realized fixtures and availability. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter’s miss was primarily operational (drydock availability) and market-rate driven; liquidity and leverage remain strong to support distributions and optionality .
  • Forward bookings at materially higher TCE (>$67k/day) and easing drydock burden position Q2 for improved sequential results; watch Helios Pool realized TCE vs bookings .
  • Dividend continuity ($0.60/share) underscores confidence in near-term cash generation and market fundamentals; potential near-term stock support on capital return .
  • Monitor macro risks: tariff policy and Middle East transit dynamics can rapidly impact rates and ton-miles; recent volatility normalized quickly, but risk premia remain .
  • Cost discipline: expect ~$26,000/day cash cost run-rate and ~$14–$15M TC-in expense in Q2; track G&A normalization post bonus timing and non-cash comp uptick .
  • ESG/optionality: scrubber and dual-fuel savings plus ammonia carriage upgrades enhance fleet optionality and regulatory alignment; potential medium-term charter premiums .
  • Near-term trade: Positive skew to rate momentum and cash returns; key catalysts are reported Q2 TCE realization, dividend cadence, and any fleet renewal announcements .